The sharp rally in the broader markets has propelled India's market capitalisation (m-cap) to a new high. The combined m-cap of all BSE-listed firms rose to Rs 291.9 trillion in intraday trade on Thursday before settling lower at Rs 290.9 trillion. The previous record was on December 14, 2022, at Rs 291.3 trillion.
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Mutual funds (MFs) invested a record Rs 1.73 trillion in equities in the financial year 2022-23 (FY23), providing strong support to the Indian markets at a time when foreign investors were redeeming their holdings. They exceeded the previous high of nearly Rs 1.72 trillion investment in equities in FY22. The data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) shows MFs were net buyers in the equity market in eleven of the twelve months last financial year.
'The markets will correct, and they are bound to correct. The boom will turn into bust.' 'When this bust happens, people would lose like they have lost in the past.' 'Whatever you have made possibly in the last couple of years, you may lose in a couple of weeks. That's very much possible.'
In the current calendar year, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have witnessed an impressive surge in initial public offerings (IPOs), surpassing the 2018 record. Over 150 SME IPOs have been introduced to the market, breaking the previous record of 141 set in 2018. According to data from PRIME Database, a primary market tracking firm, 147 companies successfully concluded their debut share sales by the end of October, raising a cumulative Rs 3,727 crore.
Micro-cap stocks are in the line of fire as market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is tightening its noose around investment in small-cap stocks. Given this, analysts suggest investors exit the segment, at least, for the time being. Independent market analyst, Ambareesh Baliga, for instance, said that regulators have gotten worried on the valuation front, though belated, which could prove to be the last straw on the camel's back.
'This is a good time to restructure your portfolio because the sectors and stocks that performed in the last bull market may not perform as much now.'
'I would not suggest buying these stocks in the dip, as the upside in profit is dented without a safety net for a rainy day.'
The benchmark indices are set to end their five-month gaining streak, but the market breadth continues to hold strong So far this month, stocks gaining have outnumbered those declining, a sign that the bulls still have the upper hand, even as the pullback in the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty indicates otherwise. On the BSE, 2,126 stocks have advanced and 1,955 have declined in August, translating into an advance/decline ratio (ADR) of 1.1.
Investors should view any bounce-back in bank stocks as an opportunity to exit the pack, analysts suggested, as the worst may not be over yet. The recent quarterly results of HDFC Bank and Axis Bank disappointed the Street, triggering a marketwide selloff by foreign institutional investors, especially in banking counters. While HDFC Bank, which was the anchor for the market correction during the past week, ended 2 per cent higher amid short covering on Wednesday, Axis Bank's shares settled 3 per cent lower.
Of the 854 stocks that quoted less than Rs 20 on March 23, 2020 - when the Sensex hit more than a three-year low - 482 have doubled.
The decline of over 5 per cent in PB Fintech's shares (the parent company of PolicyBazaar) in the past two days presents an opportunity for long-term investors to consider buying the stock, suggest analysts. By comparison, the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex has remained flat during the same period with a negligible gain of 40 points, or 0.06 per cent. Analysts believe that the recent selling is "overdone", as the company behind the online insurance portal remains committed to achieving profitability, and the potential threat from the government's online insurance portal, Bima Sugam, might be embellished.
The benchmark Sensex is 2.4 per cent shy of a new lifetime high but the market capitalisation (m-cap) of all companies listed on the BSE is already in the record books. At Thursday's (August 18) closing price, the total m-cap of 4,776 firms on the BSE stood at Rs 280.5 trillion, surpassing the previous high of Rs 280 trillion on January 17. This, even if the Nifty Midcap 100 is currently 5.4 per cent below its lifetime high, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 index is down over 20 per cent.
The country's dash to a $3-trillion market cap is more a case of teamwork, than a few members doing most of the heavy lifting. Sample this: The share of top 100 companies to India's total market cap (BSE-listed companies' m-cap) is 67.3 per cent currently, less than what it has been when the nation hit previous milestones, such as $1 trillion, $1.5 trillion in 2007 or $2.5 trillion more recently in December 2020. In 2007, when India's m-cap topped the $1-trillion mark for the first time, the top 100 companies accounted for three-fourths of the total m-cap; at $1.5 trillion, the share was almost 80 per cent.
SBI Q3FY24 result review: A higher-than-factored weakness in the October-to-December quarter (Q3) results of State Bank of India (SBI), for financial year 2023-24 (FY24), has prompted brokerages to cut earnings estimates for the ongoing financial year. They, however, have maintained 'Buy' ratings on the stock, revising target price upwards in some cases, owing to the stock's recent underperformance relative to its peers.
'Forget your loss or profit in your portfolio.' 'Look at how much cash you have in hand.' 'If you don't have cash in hand, liquidate at least partially; get into about 20 per cent in cash.'
The gap between the highs and the lows in April for the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex was just 4.1 per cent - the narrowest since July 2021 and nearly half its three-year average. The absence of major positive triggers, sectoral rotation, and cautiousness due to earnings and economic uncertainty have kept a tight leash on the markets, observe experts. Remarkably enough, during the 17 trading sessions in April, the Sensex didn't even log an advance or a decline of more than 1 per cent.
Notwithstanding the risk involved, analysts are upbeat on micro-cap investing as India remains in a firm bull market. Moreover, these stocks are available at relatively cheaper valuations compared to large, mid and small caps, assuring alpha returns. With a market-capitalisation (market-cap) of up to Rs 10,000 crore, micro-cap stocks are outside the purview of Nifty 500 stocks, and are ranked from 501 to 750 in the market-cap ladder.
The market breadth has turned sharply positive since May amid hopes that a decline in Covid-19 infections will lead to a revival in the economy. At 3.8, the advance-decline ratio (ADR) for May was the best since June 2020. So far this month, the ratio has remained above three - in simpler words, for every declining stock, there were nearly four advancing stocks in May and three this month. ADR is a popular market breadth indicator, with a ratio of more than two signalling an extremely bullish undercurrent.
Reminiscent of the past two years, the market has made positive strides ahead of the Union Budget 2023-24 (FY24). The benchmark National Stock Exchange Nifty has gained 1.8 per cent in the last month. Typically, markets tend to gain ahead of the Budget as investors build in optimism.
Investors are increasingly turning optimistic about shares of new-age companies. From broad-based 'sell' calls, analysts are giving thumbs up to Zomato, Paytm, and FSN e-Commerce Ventures-owned Nykaa as these companies have shifted focus to sustainable profits. The shares of Zomato hit a fresh 52-week high of Rs 126 apiece on the BSE on November 7, having rallied 15.4 per cent in one week.
For large start-ups the US market is considered to be a preferred destination, as Indian investors were seen as hesitant to pay the kind of valuation private equity investors or the US markets pay. However, Zomato's listing has quashed these notions.
'His track record in the market has been spotless and untainted.' 'That is why he had such great fan following among investors.'
Brokerages are expanding the universe of stocks they cover amid a boom in the market. Several stocks in the mid-cap universe are now tracked by more analysts than they were a year ago. For instance, SBI Cards and Payment Services is now tracked by 17 brokerages, compared to just four a year ago.
The Adani group has the maximum number of companies in the trillion club at five, followed by the Tata group (four).
'If the NDA comes to power with 320-330 plus seats, then we could see some correction. We could possibly see a level of 19,500 to 20,000.' 'If the NDA comes to power with a majority of 400-plus, we could see the markets going to about 23,500-24,000 levels.' 'And from there we could see some correction because markets are expensive at this point of time and a correction is overdue.'
With most Adani Group shares locked in lower-circuit in early morning trade based on news that accounts of three foreign portfolio investors, heavily invested into group companies, were frozen by the National Security Depository Limited, market experts advise caution that investors should not jump in now to buy at lower levels.
'Sell part of your portfolio where you're making good money, especially in small caps and mid caps.' 'The money which you take home is yours. The money which is there on paper is not yours.
The listing day gain-to-loss ratio for FY21 was 71 per cent, the highest since FY17, when it was 85 per cent.
The companies that have seen sharp erosion of market wealth include YES Bank, Indiabulls Housing Finance, Zee Entertainment, Vodafone Idea, and Bharat Heavy Electricals.
Some of the firms that have witnessed major drop in analysts' coverage include Dish TV, YES Bank, and JSW Energy.
'The announcement has come too late. This should have been done years ago.'
'If individual stocks start falling 25% to 30% or more, then I doubt how many of them will be able to withstand that (kind of selloff). That is when you'll see panic coming in.'
The India growth story is still intact, and fall in the Indian stock markets is an imported one and if the government succeeds in legislating the GST and Land Bill, India could yet emerge as a winner believe stock market experts
'It is only fear and speculation, without much substance, that has led to the fall.'
Technology start-ups that got listed in the last few quarters reported a hit to their December-quarter (Q3FY22) profitability due to higher marketing and employee costs. While fintech firms Paytm and PB Fintech saw their losses widen by 45 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 778 crore and 55 per cent to Rs 295 crore, respectively, food delivery company Zomato remained in the red despite narrowing its net loss by 81 per cent to Rs 66 crore. Meanwhile, online fashion and beauty products seller Nykaa saw its net profit drop 59 per cent to Rs 28 crore in Q3FY22.
Worries remain on earnings-valuations mismatch, global issues; resolution of the MAT row could be biggest positive trigger
The relentless rally in small- and mid-cap stocks continues as large-caps show signs of fatigue. In July, the Nifty Smallcap 100 rose 8.1 per cent, extending its year-to-date (YTD) gains to 48.5 per cent, while the Nifty Midcap 100 added 3.1 per cent, taking its YTD rise to 33.5 per cent. On the other hand, the Nifty50 remained unchanged for the month, with YTD gains of 12.7 per cent.
'Investors should continue to invest because you are looking at the long-term; in the next four to five years, we are bound to outperform (the rest of the world equity markets).'
In the first six months of the year, the average number of deals a month stood at 1,264, against 1,484 in the six months ended December 2012
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